Nate Silver
American statistician and writer
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| March 2025 | FiveThirtyEight was shut down after operating under ABC News' data analytics division following Silver's departure. |
| 2024 | Silver voted for Kamala Harris in the election. |
| 2024 | Silver created an election forecast for the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Trump and Harris, which predicted an almost even chance of winning the Electoral College and correctly forecast Trump's victory in most swing states and the presidency. |
| November 2024 | Silver reported significant financial success from Silver Bulletin, ranking third on Substack's politics leaderboard with 282,000 subscribers. |
| August 2024 | Silver published his book 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything', exploring calculated risks in various fields like finance and poker. |
| June 2024 | Silver released his own election forecasting model at Silver Bulletin, using methodology similar to his previous model at 538, and joined Polymarket prediction market startup as an advisor. |
| 2023 | Silver participated in the World Series of Poker Main Event, finishing in 87th place and earning part of his $811,142 total tournament earnings. |
| May 2023 | Silver departed from FiveThirtyEight, with the site continuing to operate under the data analytics division of ABC News with a reduced team. |
| May 2023 | Departs from FiveThirtyEight and begins publishing on his Substack blog, Silver Bulletin, while serving as an advisor to Polymarket. |
| April 2023 | Nate Silver announced that his contract with ABC would not be extended, coinciding with widespread layoffs at Disney and ABC affecting FiveThirtyEight. |
| 2022 | Silver voted for Kathy Hochul in the election. |
| 2020 | Predicts the outcome of the U.S. presidential election with high accuracy. |
| 2018 | FiveThirtyEight was sold to ABC News, further consolidating its position in media and political analysis. |
| May 2018 | Kenyon College awarded Silver a Doctor of Humane Letters degree. |
| May 2017 | Georgetown University awarded Silver a Doctor of Humane Letters degree, honoris causa. |
| 2016 | Silver provides a 28.6% chance of victory for Donald Trump, which was higher than any other scientific forecast at the time. |
| 2016 | Silver voted for John Kasich in the New York Republican presidential primary, believing Kasich would be a better alternative to Trump. |
| November 8 2016 | FiveThirtyEight issued its final election prediction for the U.S. presidential election, giving Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning, while simultaneously projecting a 29% chance for Donald Trump - a notably more nuanced forecast compared to other election modelers. |
| 2015 | Appeared on the Employee of the Month podcast, where he criticized Vox Media for 'recycling Wikipedia entries'. |
| 2014 | Wrote the introduction for 'The Best American Infographics 2014' published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. |
| May 25 2014 | Silver received a Doctorate of Humane Letters, honoris causa, from Amherst College. |
| March 2014 | Co-authored 'Best Picture Math' article published in Vanity Fair. |
| March 17 2014 | FiveThirtyEight was relaunched under Disney's ESPN, with Nate Silver outlining the scope of topics for the site's data journalism approach. |
| December 2013 | The University of Leuven in Belgium awarded Silver an honorary doctoral degree for his prominent role in developing and applying prediction methods in sports and political sciences. |
| November 3 2013 | First appearance on ABC News's This Week with George Stephanopoulos as Editor-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. |
| October 2013 | Silver's book 'The Signal and the Noise' won the Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, recognizing outstanding contributions to scientific literature. |
| July 22 2013 | ESPN acquired ownership of the FiveThirtyEight website and brand, with Silver designated as editor-in-chief and tasked with building a new team of journalists, editors, analysts, and contributors. |
| July 12 2013 | Wrote a book review with autobiographical elements for The New York Times, reviewing 'Beautiful Minds: The Boy Who Loved Math and On a Beam of Light'. |
| May 24 2013 | Silver received an honorary Doctor of Literature degree and presented a commencement address at The New School. |
| May 12 2013 | Silver received an honorary Doctor of Science degree and delivered the commencement address at Ripon College. |
| 2012 | Successfully predicts the outcome of the U.S. presidential election with high accuracy. |
| 2012 | Co-authored academic research paper 'What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference' published in Economic Inquiry. |
| 2012 | Silver offered a $1,000 charity wager to Joe Scarborough after Scarborough criticized his election prediction of a 73.6% chance of an Obama win. |
| 2012 | Silver gave an interview to Charlie Rose discussing his political views, describing himself as between a libertarian and a liberal. |
| 2012 | Silver faced significant criticism from political conservatives who argued his election projections were biased against Mitt Romney, with some accusing him of adjusting poll weights based on personal perception. |
| 2012 | Silver discusses his experience of feeling like an outsider in an interview, reflecting on his identity as a gay man and his perspective on societal norms. |
| November 2012 | After the 2012 election, Silver commented on potential future election forecasting, indicating he planned to continue making predictions for the 2014 and 2016 elections. |
| November 7 2012 | Second appearance on The Daily Show, following his accurate prediction of the 2012 presidential race outcome. |
| November 6 2012 | On the morning of the presidential election, Silver's final model update at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning. His model correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including nine swing states. |
| November 6 2012 | Following the U.S. election, sales of 'The Signal and the Noise' dramatically increased by 800%, becoming the second best-selling book on Amazon.com. |
| November 5 2012 | Second appearance on The Colbert Report. |
| October 26 2012 | Appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher. |
| September 2012 | Published his book about prediction, and began hinting at potentially expanding his forecasting work beyond detailed election statistics in future years. |
| September 27 2012 | Nate Silver published 'The Signal and the Noise' in the United States, which initially ranked #12 on the New York Times Best Sellers List for non-fiction hardback books. |
| June 7 2012 | Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts, projecting Barack Obama to win 291 electoral votes with a 61.8% chance of winning a majority. |
| February 2012 | Silver published an updated article 'What Obama Should Do Next', presenting a more optimistic view of President Obama's re-election chances, along with a companion blog post 'The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama'. |
| 2011 | Nate Silver wrote a cover story for The New York Times Magazine titled 'Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election', featuring an interactive prediction tool 'Choose Obama's Re-Election Adventure' that allowed readers to predict election outcomes based on different variables. |
| November 19 2010 | Silver's first feature in The New York Times Sunday Magazine appeared, initially under the heading 'Go Figure' and later renamed 'Acts of Mild Subversion'. |
| August 25 2010 | The New York Times launched 'FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus', with the first publication focusing on forecasting 2010 U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections. |
| June 3 2010 | Nate Silver announced the transition of FiveThirtyEight to The New York Times, revealing plans to re-launch the blog under a NYTimes.com domain and contribute to both online and print editions. |
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